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Dec 10, 2012
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silvio berlusconi is not going to end up running italy. i think perhaps a bigger issue at this stage, and this is from deutsche bank whether the virtual intervention we've had, the ecb saying we will intervene if we have to, may now be wearing a little bit thin. there is a knee-jerk reaction. the italian banks, they're all down. they're clogging up the bottom of the stock 600 in europe. so the banks have fallen. some of the industrials have also been marked lower in italy. today for example you could see with alitalia, and telecom italia is also lower. you see a spike higher in italian yield. you'll see the headlines, and they'll be raging about it. bear in mind where we actually are on this quite high yield relative to where we've been. let's get some perspective on what has happened. what i think is more interesting is the fact that it's moved over to spain. do you remember when we had that bad auction. the spanish didn't get as much debt away last tuesday and that really spooked the markets, potentially we're reaching a point at which t
silvio berlusconi is not going to end up running italy. i think perhaps a bigger issue at this stage, and this is from deutsche bank whether the virtual intervention we've had, the ecb saying we will intervene if we have to, may now be wearing a little bit thin. there is a knee-jerk reaction. the italian banks, they're all down. they're clogging up the bottom of the stock 600 in europe. so the banks have fallen. some of the industrials have also been marked lower in italy. today for example you...
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Dec 24, 2012
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here is sitting down with cnbc italy. yes, we do have a cnbc italy, quite powerful in italy. and he says, oh, he did not want to run for prime minister again but people have been twisting his arm because when he looked at the data, carl, he is the only one who can bring 40% of the vote. the vote is going to be in late february. mario monti just stepped down, the prime minister for the last year or so, passed a budget, said once i pass a budget i'm going to step down. this is monti we're talking about. over the weekend monti put up a plan on the internet and he said, okay. here is my economic plan. if there is a party in this plan i will be the leader of is that party and i, too, will run for prime minister. so this could be very interesting. silvio berlusconi had nothing good to say about mario monti during his interview and said every single economic indicator is lower since monti took over. they have been imposing us an tert measures. he said the markets were happy when monti stepped down and went on to say that the reason berlusconi had to step down in 2011, you remember t
here is sitting down with cnbc italy. yes, we do have a cnbc italy, quite powerful in italy. and he says, oh, he did not want to run for prime minister again but people have been twisting his arm because when he looked at the data, carl, he is the only one who can bring 40% of the vote. the vote is going to be in late february. mario monti just stepped down, the prime minister for the last year or so, passed a budget, said once i pass a budget i'm going to step down. this is monti we're talking...
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Dec 19, 2012
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italy, oh, my, what happens when italy -- it turns out you had to take it down. i know that john corzine, very controversial figure. that's a code word. but what a trade they almost had. in the news again today. >> almost. >> horseshoes, hand grenades. >> we should point out, gm was certainly not having the easiest of times of it. this morning's stock is up sharply, we're telling you why. the company will buy back at a premium to at least what was the market price as of yesterday, 200 million shares from the government at $27.50. that having the effect of sending the stock above that. why not, if you're gm, you've got all this cash sitting on your balance sheet. you're earning virtually nothing on it, why not take the opportunity, even at a premium, to buy it back by as much as 11%, shrinking the cap by that much. we heard from tim massad who runs t.a.r.p., they'll be dribbling out the shares over time. the next 12 to 15 months. similar to the strategy employed with citi. a bit of it coming out. and finally they cleaned it up with a few big blocks. >> that was ve
italy, oh, my, what happens when italy -- it turns out you had to take it down. i know that john corzine, very controversial figure. that's a code word. but what a trade they almost had. in the news again today. >> almost. >> horseshoes, hand grenades. >> we should point out, gm was certainly not having the easiest of times of it. this morning's stock is up sharply, we're telling you why. the company will buy back at a premium to at least what was the market price as of...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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one is greece, one is italy. the developments today are both good from an american investing perspective because they keep a lid on what's happening in those two respects. in greece there was trouble on the streets of athens last night as a result of left-wing protesters and students out and police using tear gas to disperse them as they protested the death of a teenager as a result of a police shooting four years ago, but the more important thing from a market perspective is that in 30 minutes' time now, the book will close on the greek debt buyback. now, remember what's happening here. the greek government is borrowing 10 billion euros from the rest of europe to buy back its own debt at a discount. if it does that successfully, by midday our time when that book closes, then more cash will flow through from the rest of europe, possibly next week it will be able to repay its bills and capitalize on the banks. let's check the close. >> the european markets are closing now. >> so we kind of went nowhere today. a lo
one is greece, one is italy. the developments today are both good from an american investing perspective because they keep a lid on what's happening in those two respects. in greece there was trouble on the streets of athens last night as a result of left-wing protesters and students out and police using tear gas to disperse them as they protested the death of a teenager as a result of a police shooting four years ago, but the more important thing from a market perspective is that in 30...
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Dec 17, 2012
12/12
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a lot in italy. >> it's an all-italian version of the european close right now, carl. mario monti, contrary to reports last week that he did not want to run for prime minister again, we now hear he's undecided, and may actually run for p.m. of the country. right now he serves technocratically. there's expected to be an election early next year, maybe in february or in march. he has told reporters that he's considering it. the cabinet member he spoke with earlier in the week said he's going to make an announcement sometime this week on television. when asked by reporters about his recent visit to the tomb of saint francis he said he did, indeed, pray there to help him make a decision about whether or not to run. a man eagerly awaiting monti's decision is silvio berlusconi, the former prime minister of italy. we're pretty sure he has not prayed at the tomb of st. francis lately. he has said that he devil wants to be run for prime minister again however at the same time he's also made noises that suggest that he wouldn't run if monti runs. that's not set in stone. we're g
a lot in italy. >> it's an all-italian version of the european close right now, carl. mario monti, contrary to reports last week that he did not want to run for prime minister again, we now hear he's undecided, and may actually run for p.m. of the country. right now he serves technocratically. there's expected to be an election early next year, maybe in february or in march. he has told reporters that he's considering it. the cabinet member he spoke with earlier in the week said he's...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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italy in the red there really divergent from the rest of europe. germany up on the right, a good gain up over 1%, the italian market falls by 1%. silvio berlusconi is back in italian politics proving he still runs his party and withdrawing support from mario monti. this may lead to midterm elections because monti is market friendly you might not end up with a market friendly solution. we thought we'd have elections march/april, there's the prospect it could be a snap election much earlier perhaps in the new year. now the good news is there isn't a huge amount of blowout on the bonds at the short end of the italian markets. the yields are higher but not huge relative to where we've been but on the ten-year italian market you can see we're slightly higher but no great shakes overall. it means the rally in the peripheral bond market we've witnessed in italy and spain has now stalled at this stage. remember we had the auction in spain yesterday and the yields are slightly higher relative to where we've been, they're still relatively depressed. we talk
italy in the red there really divergent from the rest of europe. germany up on the right, a good gain up over 1%, the italian market falls by 1%. silvio berlusconi is back in italian politics proving he still runs his party and withdrawing support from mario monti. this may lead to midterm elections because monti is market friendly you might not end up with a market friendly solution. we thought we'd have elections march/april, there's the prospect it could be a snap election much earlier...
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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. >> remember yesterday and all that concern we had about where italy might go with the resignation of mario monti. greece is higher. por sh gal is higher. spain is higher. it's a good day for -- investor sentiment.strongly it was revealed today. optimism over what the fed is going to do in the united states tomorrow. optimism there will be a deal on the fiscal cliff. you have optimism that the recapitalization of the banks is going to be delayed by another year according to the bank of italy. and you have optimism as well on mar of election promises as we now face the pros wekt of a much earlier election in italy. to that end it is fascinating. sylvia berlusconi has come out today warning about the germano center of politics. in other words, too much of a focus on what is happening from germany and the austerity inspired by angela merkel. in particular, he is drawing attention to this. which is the spread of the extra that investors demand to hold italian bonds over german bonds. i've shown this to you a couple times. over the last year it's been a mainstay of a lot of the italian bus
. >> remember yesterday and all that concern we had about where italy might go with the resignation of mario monti. greece is higher. por sh gal is higher. spain is higher. it's a good day for -- investor sentiment.strongly it was revealed today. optimism over what the fed is going to do in the united states tomorrow. optimism there will be a deal on the fiscal cliff. you have optimism that the recapitalization of the banks is going to be delayed by another year according to the bank of...
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Dec 18, 2012
12/12
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we know that the ecb stands ready with unlimited support for spain and italy, when and if they sign on to oversight agreements. these are huge dramatic changes. think about how many times we've agonized over where the money would come from for bailing out spain and italy. now we know. when they sign on to oversight. >> the point is we know -- we know what the policy response already is by the ecb and the feds. so what is going to be the next catalyst to keep the markets to those new highs you're talking about? >> the next big catalyst is obviously the fiscal cliff resolution, second, you have spain sign on to oversight from the ecb. remove any possibility of spanish default and we think that lagarde is signaling that the conditions to that oversight will be a lot about labor market reforms. those are growth enhancing, so that's another great catalyst for the market. last, but certainly not least, i think you could see the new leadership team in china come more aggressive reform program than people are expecting. >> all right. michael, good to have you. >> thank you so much. >> michael
we know that the ecb stands ready with unlimited support for spain and italy, when and if they sign on to oversight agreements. these are huge dramatic changes. think about how many times we've agonized over where the money would come from for bailing out spain and italy. now we know. when they sign on to oversight. >> the point is we know -- we know what the policy response already is by the ecb and the feds. so what is going to be the next catalyst to keep the markets to those new highs...
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Dec 14, 2012
12/12
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i think once we get to the spring you'll see a lot more protests in greece and spain and italy. also i think if you look at the real numbers, rick, the real numbers are not as europe gives them to us. i mean, the real debt ratio, if you count it like ge or ibm and greece, is 450%. it's about 260% for italy and it's about 230% for spain and all of these things that aren't counted are going to come to roost over a period of time. so i think we're in a lull right now. i think mostly because of draghi and his comments that we're going to give money forever and save the world that i think as we head into the new year that's going to come to a conclusion. >> last question, we're running short of time. if you had an extra thousand dollars to invest right now, in something simple, in any country in the globe, where would you put it and what would it be? would it be fixed income, equities? >> fixed income, as long as you can go. investment grade. there is going to be tremendous compression. and i think that's the place to be. >> i'm in agreement with you. carl, melissa, back to you. >> t
i think once we get to the spring you'll see a lot more protests in greece and spain and italy. also i think if you look at the real numbers, rick, the real numbers are not as europe gives them to us. i mean, the real debt ratio, if you count it like ge or ibm and greece, is 450%. it's about 260% for italy and it's about 230% for spain and all of these things that aren't counted are going to come to roost over a period of time. so i think we're in a lull right now. i think mostly because of...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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many areas whether you talk italy or indeed greece, rates are moving down. that isn't a bad thing for funding but it does ehave peopl look at spain saying they'll do bank bailout, old program, not country bailout new program. the correction was small. goldman says stocks are the place to be. kind of making this trade a little more true than it was on its knee jerk. if you look at putting it together. you can see we're up several basis points. still not huge. if you open it up to a one-month chart, you can see that 160 remains the pivot. it's still about europe. don't despair. i'm sure the red herring of bashing tax policy in the u.s. will get to the front page before the end of the session. >> thank you very much. let's check out latest news in energy and medals with sharon epperson. >> it's the euro that we see in euro dollar helping commodities and risk on trade across the board in the sector. the fact that we are looking at that euro dollar and above 130 level is significant. also keep in mind that we did get improving factory activity. that pmi data out
many areas whether you talk italy or indeed greece, rates are moving down. that isn't a bad thing for funding but it does ehave peopl look at spain saying they'll do bank bailout, old program, not country bailout new program. the correction was small. goldman says stocks are the place to be. kind of making this trade a little more true than it was on its knee jerk. if you look at putting it together. you can see we're up several basis points. still not huge. if you open it up to a one-month...